Unravelling the functional and phylogenetic dimensions of novel ecosystem assemblages.

Human activities are causing taxonomic rearrangements across ecosystems that often result in the emergence of novel communities (assemblies with no historical representative). It is commonly assumed that these changes in the taxonomic makeup of ecosystems also inevitably lead to changes in other aspects of biodiversity, namely functional and phylogenetic diversity. However, this assumption is not always valid, as the changes in functional and phylogenetic composition resulting from taxonomic shifts depend on the level of redundancy in the evaluated community. Therefore, we need improved theoretical frameworks to predict when we can expect coordinated or decoupled responses among these three facets of biodiversity. To advance this understanding, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues that complicate establishing a link between taxonomic rearrangements driven by human activities and the associated functional and phylogenetic changes. Here, we show that is crucial to consider the expected changes in functional and phylogenetic composition as communities are reshaped owing to human drivers of biodiversity loss to forecast the impacts of novel assemblages on ecosystem functions and the services they provide to humanity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Using photogrammetry to create virtual permanent plots in rare and threatened plant communities.

Premise: Many plant communities across the world are undergoing changes due to climate change, human disturbance, and other threats. These community-level changes are often tracked with the use of permanent vegetative plots, but this approach is not always feasible. As an alternative, we propose using photogrammetry, specifically photograph-based digital surface models (DSMs) developed using structure-from-motion, to establish virtual permanent plots in plant communities where the use of permanent structures may not be possible. Methods: In 2021 and 2022, we took iPhone photographs to record species presence in 1-m2 plots distributed across alpine communities in the northeastern United States. We then compared field estimates of percent coverage with coverage estimated using DSMs. Results: Digital surface models can provide effective, minimally invasive, and permanent records of plant species presence and percent coverage, while also allowing managers to mark survey locations virtually for long-term monitoring. We found that percent coverage estimated from DSMs did not differ from field estimates for most species and substrates. Discussion: In order to continue surveying efforts in areas where permanent structures or other surveying methods are not feasible, photogrammetry and structure-from-motion methods can provide a low-cost approach that allows agencies to accurately survey and record sensitive plant communities through time.

Response to comment on "Evidence of prehistoric human activity in the Falkland Islands".

Hamley et al. previously presented multiple lines of evidence that people were present in the Falkland Islands before Europeans and may have brought the now-extinct canid, Dusicyon australis. Stable isotope data reported by Clark et al. indicate that D. australis had a high-trophic, marine diet that terrestrialized following European arrival. This is consistent with our hypothesis of a human mutualism.

Evidence of prehistoric human activity in the Falkland Islands.

When Darwin visited the Falkland Islands in 1833, he noted the puzzling occurrence of the islands' sole terrestrial mammal, Dusicyon australis (or "warrah"). The warrah's origins have been debated, and prehistoric human transport was previously rejected because of a lack of evidence of pre-European human activity in the Falkland Islands. We report several lines of evidence indicating that humans were present in the Falkland Islands centuries before Europeans, including (i) an abrupt increase in fire activity, (ii) deposits of mixed marine vertebrates that predate European exploration by centuries, and (iii) a surface-find projectile point made of local quartzite. Dietary evidence from D. australis remains further supports a potential mutualism with humans. The findings from our study are consistent with the culture of the Yaghan (Yámana) people from Tierra del Fuego. If people reached the Falkland Islands centuries before European colonization, this reopens the possibility of human introduction of the warrah.

People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years.

Archaeological and paleoecological evidence shows that by 10,000 BCE, all human societies employed varying degrees of ecologically transformative land use practices, including burning, hunting, species propagation, domestication, cultivation, and others that have left long-term legacies across the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, a lingering paradigm among natural scientists, conservationists, and policymakers is that human transformation of terrestrial nature is mostly recent and inherently destructive. Here, we use the most up-to-date, spatially explicit global reconstruction of historical human populations and land use to show that this paradigm is likely wrong. Even 12,000 y ago, nearly three quarters of Earth's land was inhabited and therefore shaped by human societies, including more than 95% of temperate and 90% of tropical woodlands. Lands now characterized as "natural," "intact," and "wild" generally exhibit long histories of use, as do protected areas and Indigenous lands, and current global patterns of vertebrate species richness and key biodiversity areas are more strongly associated with past patterns of land use than with present ones in regional landscapes now characterized as natural. The current biodiversity crisis can seldom be explained by the loss of uninhabited wildlands, resulting instead from the appropriation, colonization, and intensifying use of the biodiverse cultural landscapes long shaped and sustained by prior societies. Recognizing this deep cultural connection with biodiversity will therefore be essential to resolve the crisis.

Seabird establishment during regional cooling drove a terrestrial ecosystem shift 5000 years ago.

The coastal tussac (Poa flabellata) grasslands of the Falkland Islands are a critical seabird breeding habitat but have been drastically reduced by grazing and erosion. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of seabirds and tussac to climate change is unknown because of a lack of long-term records in the South Atlantic. Our 14,000-year multiproxy record reveals an ecosystem state shift following seabird establishment 5000 years ago, as marine-derived nutrients from guano facilitated tussac establishment, peat productivity, and increased fire. Seabird arrival coincided with regional cooling, suggesting that the Falkland Islands are a cold-climate refugium. Conservation efforts focusing on tussac restoration should include this terrestrial-marine linkage, although a warming Southern Ocean calls into question the long-term viability of the Falkland Islands as habitat for low-latitude seabirds.

Ten Simple Rules for a successful remote postdoc.

Postdocs are a critical transition for early-career researchers. This transient period, between finishing a PhD and finding a permanent position, is when early-career researchers develop independent research programs and establish collaborative relationships that can make a successful career. Traditionally, postdocs physically relocate-sometimes multiple times-for these short-term appointments, which creates challenges that can disproportionately affect members of traditionally underrepresented groups in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). However, many research activities involving analytical and quantitative work do not require a physical presence in a lab and can be accomplished remotely. Other fields have embraced remote work, yet many academics have been hesitant to hire remote postdocs. In this article, we present advice to both principal investigators (PIs) and postdocs for successfully navigating a remote position. Using the combined experience of the authors (as either remote postdocs or employers of remote postdocs), we provide a road map to overcome the real (and perceived) obstacles associated with remote work. With planning, communication, and creativity, remote postdocs can be a fully functioning and productive member of a research lab. Further, our rules can be useful for research labs generally and can help foster a more flexible and inclusive environment.

Biomolecular analyses reveal the age, sex and species identity of a near-intact Pleistocene bird carcass.

Ancient remains found in permafrost represent a rare opportunity to study past ecosystems. Here, we present an exceptionally well-preserved ancient bird carcass found in the Siberian permafrost, along with a radiocarbon date and a reconstruction of its complete mitochondrial genome. The carcass was radiocarbon dated to approximately 44-49 ka BP, and was genetically identified as a female horned lark. This is a species that usually inhabits open habitat, such as the steppe environment that existed in Siberia at the time. This near-intact carcass highlights the potential of permafrost remains for evolutionary studies that combine both morphology and ancient nucleic acids.

Combining paleo-data and modern exclosure experiments to assess the impact of megafauna extinctions on woody vegetation.

Until recently in Earth history, very large herbivores (mammoths, ground sloths, diprotodons, and many others) occurred in most of the World's terrestrial ecosystems, but the majority have gone extinct as part of the late-Quaternary extinctions. How has this large-scale removal of large herbivores affected landscape structure and ecosystem functioning? In this review, we combine paleo-data with information from modern exclosure experiments to assess the impact of large herbivores (and their disappearance) on woody species, landscape structure, and ecosystem functions. In modern landscapes characterized by intense herbivory, woody plants can persist by defending themselves or by association with defended species, can persist by growing in places that are physically inaccessible to herbivores, or can persist where high predator activity limits foraging by herbivores. At the landscape scale, different herbivore densities and assemblages may result in dynamic gradients in woody cover. The late-Quaternary extinctions were natural experiments in large-herbivore removal; the paleoecological record shows evidence of widespread changes in community composition and ecosystem structure and function, consistent with modern exclosure experiments. We propose a conceptual framework that describes the impact of large herbivores on woody plant abundance mediated by herbivore diversity and density, predicting that herbivore suppression of woody plants is strongest where herbivore diversity is high. We conclude that the decline of large herbivores induces major alterations in landscape structure and ecosystem functions.

A 2.5-million-year perspective on coarse-filter strategies for conserving nature's stage.

Climate change will require novel conservation strategies. One such tactic is a coarse-filter approach that focuses on conserving nature's stage (CNS) rather than the actors (individual species). However, there is a temporal mismatch between the long-term goals of conservation and the short-term nature of most ecological studies, which leaves many assumptions untested. Paleoecology provides a valuable perspective on coarse-filter strategies by marshaling the natural experiments of the past to contextualize extinction risk due to the emerging impacts of climate change and anthropogenic threats. We reviewed examples from the paleoecological record that highlight the strengths, opportunities, and caveats of a CNS approach. We focused on the near-time geological past of the Quaternary, during which species were subjected to widespread changes in climate and concomitant changes in the physical environment in general. Species experienced a range of individualistic responses to these changes, including community turnover and novel associations, extinction and speciation, range shifts, changes in local richness and evenness, and both equilibrium and disequilibrium responses. Due to the dynamic nature of species responses to Quaternary climate change, a coarse-filter strategy may be appropriate for many taxa because it can accommodate dynamic processes. However, conservationists should also consider that the persistence of landforms varies across space and time, which could have potential long-term consequences for geodiversity and thus biodiversity.

The theory behind, and the challenges of, conserving nature's stage in a time of rapid change.

Most conservation planning to date has focused on protecting today's biodiversity with the assumption that it will be tomorrow's biodiversity. However, modern climate change has already resulted in distributional shifts of some species and is projected to result in many more shifts in the coming decades. As species redistribute and biotic communities reorganize, conservation plans based on current patterns of biodiversity may fail to adequately protect species in the future. One approach for addressing this issue is to focus on conserving a range of abiotic conditions in the conservation-planning process. By doing so, it may be possible to conserve an abiotically diverse "stage" upon which evolution will play out and support many actors (biodiversity). We reviewed the fundamental underpinnings of the concept of conserving the abiotic stage, starting with the early observations of von Humboldt, who mapped the concordance of abiotic conditions and vegetation, and progressing to the concept of the ecological niche. We discuss challenges posed by issues of spatial and temporal scale, the role of biotic drivers of species distributions, and latitudinal and topographic variation in relationships between climate and landform. For example, abiotic conditions are not static, but change through time-albeit at different and often relatively slow rates. In some places, biotic interactions play a substantial role in structuring patterns of biodiversity, meaning that patterns of biodiversity may be less tightly linked to the abiotic stage. Furthermore, abiotic drivers of biodiversity can change with latitude and topographic position, meaning that the abiotic stage may need to be defined differently in different places. We conclude that protecting a diversity of abiotic conditions will likely best conserve biodiversity into the future in places where abiotic drivers of species distributions are strong relative to biotic drivers, where the diversity of abiotic settings will be conserved through time, and where connectivity allows for movement among areas providing different abiotic conditions.

Ecological impacts of the late Quaternary megaherbivore extinctions.

As a result of the late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions (50,000-10,000 before present (BP)), most continents today are depauperate of megaherbivores. These extinctions were time-transgressive, size- and taxonomically selective, and were caused by climate change, human hunting, or both. The surviving megaherbivores often act as ecological keystones, which was likely true in the past. In spite of this and extensive research on the causes of the Late Quaternary Extinctions, the long-term ecological consequences of the loss of the Pleistocene megafauna remained unknown until recently, due to difficulties in linking changes in flora and fauna in paleorecords. The quantification of Sporormiella and other dung fungi have recently allowed for explicit tests of the ecological consequences of megafaunal extirpations in the fossil pollen record. In this paper, I review the impacts of the loss of keystone megaherbivores on vegetation in several paleorecords. A growing number of studies support the hypothesis that the loss of the Pleistocene megafauna resulted in cascading effects on plant community composition, vegetation structure and ecosystem function, including increased fire activity, novel communities and shifts in biomes. Holocene biota thus exist outside the broader evolutionary context of the Cenozoic, and the Late Quaternary Extinctions represent a regime shift for surviving plant and animal species.

Model systems for a no-analog future: species associations and climates during the last deglaciation.

As the earth system moves to a novel state, model systems (experimental, observational, paleoecological) are needed to assess and improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models under environments with no contemporary analog. In recent years, we have intensively studied the no-analog plant associations and climates in eastern North America during the last deglaciation to better constrain their spatiotemporal distribution, test hypotheses about climatic and megaherbivory controls, and assess the accuracy of species- and community-level models. The formation of no-analog plant associations was asynchronous, beginning first in the south-central United States; at sites in the north-central United States, it is linked to declining megafaunal abundances. Insolation and temperature were more seasonal than present, creating climates currently nonexistent in North America, and shifting species-climate relationships for some taxa. These shifts pose a common challenge to empirical paleoclimatic reconstructions, species distribution models (SDMs), and conservation-optimization models based on SDMs. Steps forward include combining recent and paleoecological data to more fully describe species' fundamental niches, employing community-level models to model shifts in species interactions under no-analog climates, and assimilating paleoecological data with mechanistic ecosystem models. Accurately modeling species interactions under novel environments remains a fundamental challenge for all forms of ecological models.

Pleistocene megafaunal collapse, novel plant communities, and enhanced fire regimes in North America.

Although the North American megafaunal extinctions and the formation of novel plant communities are well-known features of the last deglaciation, the causal relationships between these phenomena are unclear. Using the dung fungus Sporormiella and other paleoecological proxies from Appleman Lake, Indiana, and several New York sites, we established that the megafaunal decline closely preceded enhanced fire regimes and the development of plant communities that have no modern analogs. The loss of keystone megaherbivores may thus have altered ecosystem structure and function by the release of palatable hardwoods from herbivory pressure and by fuel accumulation. Megafaunal populations collapsed from 14,800 to 13,700 years ago, well before the final extinctions and during the Bølling-Allerød warm period. Human impacts remain plausible, but the decline predates Younger Dryas cooling and the extraterrestrial impact event proposed to have occurred 12,900 years ago.

Multidimensional evaluation of managed relocation.

Managed relocation (MR) has rapidly emerged as a potential intervention strategy in the toolbox of biodiversity management under climate change. Previous authors have suggested that MR (also referred to as assisted colonization, assisted migration, or assisted translocation) could be a last-alternative option after interrogating a linear decision tree. We argue that numerous interacting and value-laden considerations demand a more inclusive strategy for evaluating MR. The pace of modern climate change demands decision making with imperfect information, and tools that elucidate this uncertainty and integrate scientific information and social values are urgently needed. We present a heuristic tool that incorporates both ecological and social criteria in a multidimensional decision-making framework. For visualization purposes, we collapse these criteria into 4 classes that can be depicted in graphical 2-D space. This framework offers a pragmatic approach for summarizing key dimensions of MR: capturing uncertainty in the evaluation criteria, creating transparency in the evaluation process, and recognizing the inherent tradeoffs that different stakeholders bring to evaluation of MR and its alternatives.